Thursday, 23 June 2016
Post-Brexit immediate reflections
What I predicted a week ago. Really frightening is the vacuum of power. The PM is in power with no moral authority and the Leavers are contradicting each other about the next step as they are not in power themselves and can only speculate but have no common plan. Also Labour too divided to have any influence as their voters outside London have voted to leave. Europe too will be utterly divided too with many in France, Sweden, Denmark and Italy pushing to leave the EU, while Juncker and Merkel still rumble on about ever closer union. Can a more reflective Donald Tusk give some lead when his old Eurocentric vision for central Europe appears dead? UK departure leaves uncertain the next step for those countries outside the euro like Poland being isolated by the euro bloc and the pressure from Polish Europhobes to push Poland out of the obligation to join the euro could trigger an anti-EU referendum that even Kaczynski may fail to stop. Also we must fight now for the rights of Poles actually here over rather than those wanting to come. 30,000 Polish-speaking children in London, more to come, probably twice that in the UK, what are their rights and that of their families in the future going to be? The leading Leavers say Poles will be all right but nobody really knows as the Leavers do not see the logic of what they have done and are not in power. And there will be massive pressure on Poles in East of Eangland and North East to leave. Our task for the future is huge, At least Sadiq Khan should try and defend the London Poles. Tens of thoudands will be determined to stay in UK and will applu for UK citizenship. Will they get it? Many second and third generation Poles in UK will be applying for Polish citizenship to be able to travel around Europe and find work there. Of course Scotland can leave, the Sinn Fein will push for a United Ireland thus causing a bitter even hostile reaction from Protestant mahjoity and the pound will take several weeks to stabilize as the power vacuum continues. The Obama project for UK and Europe is in tatters, Trump and Putin will be happy and China may be happy to see the 500 million strong EU market start to fall part leaving them as the biggest trading block in the future.